Question #163: What will A-Rod’s numbers be in 2009?
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- February
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So Alex Rodriguez got his first taste “road fans” yesterday in Dunedin, Fla., though to be honest, as someone who has been to Dunedin (which is pronounced “Done-eee-din,” by the way), it’s not exactly Fenway Park.
Either way, A-Rod seemed to do fine. The fans booed, there were some “A-Fraud” t-shirts (or at least one or two) and then Rodriguez went out and hit a home run anyway as the Yankees beat the Blue Jays in their spring opener.
So here’s the question: What will A-Rod’s numbers be this year? In other words, will the steroid admission + perpetual backlash/questions/investigations/other-revelations = A down year?
I think it will. Not hugely, not to the point where Rodriguez is mediocre. But I don’t think A-Rod will win the MVP this year and I don’t think he’ll have the career year out of spite that some people think he’ll produce.
I think he’ll be good. Pretty good, even. But not awesome. Not $25 million good. And to me, that’ll have to be counted as a real disappointment.
What will the numbers look like? I’m guessing something like this: .293, 31 HR, 105 RBI, .390 OBP. Pretty good, but not awesome. At least not A-Rod awesome.
Would you take that? Fans don’t often care about the payroll (since it’s not their money anyway) but paying over $20 million for a guy ought to promise a little more, no?
CARP SAYS:
I think all this controversy will have the opposite effect. I predict a monster year for A-Rod, maybe 48 homers or more, 130 RBI, .300. I don’t know if he’ll do any better in the clutch situations.
But I expect the field to be his sanctuary, and I think he will be motivated by the bad-mouthing from the stands. (Plus, I don’t believe for a minute that he’s off the stuff, and I never will).
In addition, the Yankees offense should be better this year for these reasons: Teixiera. Cano will be better, and Cabrera may also. Matsui and Posada should be relatively healthy, at least at the start.
I am also interested to see—and nobody can possibly have the answer to this yet—how the ball travels in the new stadium, even with the exact same field dimensions. The only thing we know is that when it gets over the wall it will be grabbed by someone who doesn’t have as much money in his pocket as he did at the old stadium.
293, 31 HR, 105 RBI, .390 OBP
If these are his numbers at the end of the season and the yankees make the playoffs then it is a wash. For me he has proven he is worth the money, especially in New York where far less productive players have walked away with team funds. I would expect his OBP to be a bit higher, but with the addition of a Tex (fingers crossed for a good season from him) the offensive load should be a little more evenly distributed in the lineup. Also, Im looking for an improvement from Cano, who seemed to have slacked off with the loss of Bowa to push his buttons on a day to day basis last season.
I agree with Mo, if A-rod only comes up with 30 homers and 100 rbi’s, it may not automatically be due to the steroids controversy. Tex is going to have his fair share of homers to clear runners from the bases in front of A-rod if he hits in the third spot as Girardi has said he will use him.
In some ways this really could be a monster year for him. He “came clean” (at least theoretically), and eliminating some of the stress of that big, dark secret has to be a relief (even if it is only partial). So, if you give him some relief, thats 1 positive for his performance. As to fan backlash, he is already booed mercilessly even at Yankee Stadium so I don’t see much changing there. The only change is he is possibly more relaxed (whether thats because he cleared his conscience, or he realizes he got away with something bigger that DIDN’T come out, is up for debate) which should lead to a better performance on the field.
My guess: .319, 48 HRs, 145-155 RBI, .379 OBP
only a .379 OBP with a .319 avg….. he is a much more patient batter than you are giving him credit for. If you honestly foresee a .319 avg., then his OBP will likely approach .400
maybe he will, but maybe his “relief” leads to freer swinging…..so maybe the strike outs go up and the walks go down…
but if i am wrong, then it will only help the yankees even more this year!
I do see a MVP type season (at least in numbers) for him this year. The more his steroid use drifts into the backs of people’s minds the stronger his numbers will get! While his steroid use will (hopefully) keep him out of the HOF, the likelihood that it drags his numbers/performance down is slim to none….
Hello?? Anyone there?? No new postings in a while.
ps. Arod will have a MONSTER year.
I don’t get why he would have a good year “out of spite”. Who is he mad at? He got cheated and got caught. He lied and got caught. Yes, one could make the argument that he was singled out in a list of a hundred. But a simple counter to that is this: HE chose to opt out of a 25 million a year contract, to get paid even more. He wants to be the highest paid player of all time? Well, this comes with the territory buddy.