Question #137: Rickey and Rice are in; so who’s next?
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- January
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So Jim Rice finally got a call to the Hall, well deserved in my opinion. And we all knew that Rickey Henderson was going in on the first ballot—the greatest leadoff hitter I’ve ever seen, and perhaps to ever play the game.
I do have some questions for those 28 members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who didn’t vote for him, and even more questions for the two people who voted for Jay Bell.
See, this is what scares me about the voting process.
The other thing that scares me is what happens now that pure numbers don’t mean what they used to mean.
Because next year’s ballot is going to include Fred McGriff, who I’m not sure was ever one of the best players in the game, but who compiled big numbers (493 homers to go with 1,550 RBI and a .284 average in 19 years). He never hit more than 37 homers, but he drove in 100 or more eight times.
It also includes Roberto Alomar, who was probably on a sure-fire Hall path until his dreadful Mets days; yet he was one of the best offensive second basemen ever (.300, 210 homers, 1,140 RBI). It includes Barry Larkin, who was a great, great player at his position, shortstop, and hit .295 with some pop (198 homers, 960 RBI in 19 years).
And it includes Edgar Martinez, a great bat (.312, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI) who might be the best DH since Ron Blomberg first grabbed a bat and put away his glove for the Yankees.
So let’s start things off with this question: Do you think any or all of these guys are legit Hall of Famers? Are any of them good enough to go in on their first ballot? Will next year be a year in which nobody goes into the Hall (except perhaps somebody from the Veterans Committee)?
8:45 a.m., Sam says:
I have a few more seasons until I can vote for the HOF, but my first reaction is that if I were voting next year, I wouldn’t vote for any of those guys. Maybe – maybe – Alomar, because for a middle-infielder he was one fo the best during his generation. I’d have to look closer, but I think he’d be the only one. The numbers are one thing, but I am also a big proponent of the gut-test and, sorry, when I hear “Barry Larkin,” I don’t think “Hall of Famer” right off the bat. Of course, that also means I probably wouldn’t have voted for a number of guys that have already made it.
Who’s next? If not Alomar, the 2011 class isn’t all that impressive either. Jeff Bagwell? Maybe. Though I doubt it.
Thing is, if I were the only voter, the HOF would be a LOT smaller than it is. I hold it to a high standard, probably because it’s such a wonderful and hallowed place. To me, you need to be an all-time great – truly, all-time – and I’m not so sure there is an all-time great each year. In fact, there probably isn’t. So, by definition, that means there are going to be some years where the speeches are from writers or broadcasters or old-timers from the veterans’ committee. And that’s OK, too.
(FYI, I would have voted for Rickey, too. Rice is a tough one – it sort of comes down to how you feel about 11 seasons being enough of a career to put a guy in the HOF. Rice played 16 seasons, but only 11 of them were truly excellent. If 11 seasons is enough, then he probably deserves to go in. I’m not so sure that, when it came time to mark the ballot, I’d be OK with 11 seasons as a decider for an outfielder; longevity, to me, is important. But it’s a close call. I certainly can’t go crazy about people voting for him.)
CARP SAYS:
I was watching MLB Network—which so far I really like most of the time—last night. One of the panelists on its round-table talk show is Barry Larkin. Another is Harold Reynolds. Last night Reynolds was touting Larkin as a slam-dunk HOF.
Worse, two of the guests were voters Tom Verducci and Jon Heyman, two of the most respected baseball writers in the country. I know both of these guys and they are solid citizens and guardians of the game, not to mention A-plus reporters. Yet after they revealed which players were on their ballots, Larkin went into his thing about how players have a problem with writers voting because players compete against each other and know what it’s like “to be in the fox hole together” and when it comes to the Hall, it’s in the hands of people who “never played the game.”
Are you kidding me? The writers’ ballot is taken dead-seriously, and it has kept the Hall (mostly) free of borderline Famers. If it ever went to the players, the number of inductees would triple or quadruple, because players like Reynolds and Larkin think than every good player should go in. And because most ballplayers, as they have shown with their portion of the all-star voting process, don’t have a clue of which players are good, which are great, and what anybody else has really done over his career.
Then Reynolds complained that neither Verducci or Heyman voted for 10 players. The ballot has 10 spaces. You can vote for 10 or you can vote for nobody, but you’re only supposed to vote for those you think belong in the Hall of Fame (not Jay Bell). So Verducci’s ballot had only three names on it, Heyman went for seven, which is a lot. I voted for four—Henderson, Rice (the most feared hitter of his era, more so than Eddie Murray, for example), Don Mattingly (ditto), and Bert Blyleven. I might have been convinced to add three more—Tim Raines, Andre Dawson and Jack Morris—but wasn’t. There was no way I was going to come up with 10.
Next year, I guarantee I won’t have 10 on my ballot. But that’s because the writers take this voting privelege seriously, because we take the Hall seriously. It’s not a place for crony-ism, where good players are rewarded for having a lot of friends in the game. And if the Hall of Fame ever gets too crowded, as Yogi would say, nobody would go there anymore.
11:22 a.m., Sam says:
This is one of those debates that I go back and forth on – in a lot of ways, I think it’s the height of stupidity that writers vote for any awards that don’t involve writing. Why should writers vote? Why not GM’s? Front-office types? Scouts? People who, you know, are actually involved with the game as opposed to people whose job it is to report on/comment on it? Making the news isn’t what journalists are supposed to do, so why should we be involved in bestowing the greatest honor in the game?
Cronyism exists everywhere, including among writers. Put it this way: If Jason Giambi, who is universally hailed as a great guy for writers, had Barry Bonds’ numbers, I think there’s a much greater chance he’d go into the HOF quickly, whereas I think Bonds will end up being “penalized” a few ballots (which, on another tangent, is the dumbest thing voters do – either a guy gets in or doesn’t; waiting a few years is just being spiteful).
You said the writers ballot is taken “dead seriously” but is it? Last I checked, Jay Bell was on a few ballots. How serious is that? Same with Jesse Orosco? And Mo Vaughn????
CARP SAYS:
So will you refuse your ballot when you become eligible?
When I say “dead seriously” I’m thinking of the vast majority, people like Verducci and Heyman, Bill Madden, Jack O’Connell. I’m sure that you and our guy Peter Abraham will be exhaustive in your decision-making when you attain your voting rights. I like to think I take it dead seriously, and most do.
Now, there’s no accounting for taste. Obviously some people somehow think Mo Vaughn, Jay Bell and Jesse Orosco are Hall of Famers. How? I have no idea. Obviously, there are 28 people who think Rickey Henderson is not. How? Can’t possibly explain it—although there are some old-timers who for some crusty old reason don’t believe in first-ballot inductions for guys not named DiMaggio, Williams or Aaron.
Unfortunately, too, some writers hold off on guys they didn’t personally like, and I think that happened to Rice to some degree. The guy was an absolute jackass to the media, so it’s funny now seeing him being so humble on Red Sox telecasts, and this week as he learned of his election.
But the system works for the most part because you need 75 percent of the 540 or so votes cast to get in, and that keeps most of the questionable, borderline players out.
I agree with you that our job is to report the news, not to make it. But Cooperstown needed impartial, intelligent (well, some of us must be, right?) people to vote.
As for changing your mind on players, I agreed with you until now. Because this year I was convinced, mostly by reading something Madden wrote about Blyleven, who had not been on my ballot before. Sometimes, I guess, you gain perspective, or you find out that you made an error in keeping somebody off your ballot previously. I now think I was wrong all those years when I didn’t vote for Blyleven. Some people obviously changed their minds on Rice this year. And on Gossage the year before. That’s part of the process. It isn’t either he is or isn’t a Hall of Famer. It’s about getting it right.
I also agree with you that we’ve let in too many of those borderline players—Paul Molitor, Kirby Puckett, Don Sutton and dare I say this without the wrath of the many who disagree with me, Carlton Fisk. Now they’re talking about Bagwell? And Craig Biggio. Well, then Don Mattingly has to go in, right? And Roger Maris, one of the most Famous players ever. I’d like to see a Hall that’s a lot smaller. That includes just the greatest of the great, the true immortals of the sport.
Not Jay Bell.
12:35 a.m., Sam says:
Will I turn down my ballot? No, I wouldn’t, if this current system is still in place. If media are allowed to vote, I’ll vote – but I also wouldn’t be upset if the rules were changed because I think that an alternative system very likely could be better.
And what about the notion that people within in the game should vote? Why not have a similar system of longevity in place for experienced executives or scouts or personnel people getting to vote? Wouldn’t they have just as insightful an opinion as writers?
It’s possible (and likely) that there would still be voters doing stupid things – like never voting for anyone on the first ballot, which is just asinine. But I wonder if the perception would change more favorably since it wouldn’t be “dumb writers” – as some players would say – doing it anymore.
CARP SAYS:
I wouldn’t have a major problem if they gave the vote to another group, as long as that group isn’t just players or former players. I doubt very much they’d do as much research and put as much work into it as the writers do.
I also have a big problem with writers giving writers awards associated with the various Halls of Fame. I know writers who are “in” the baseball and hockey Halls of Fame, and we just DO NOT BELONG THERE. We have no right to put ourselves in there. None whatsoever. Broadcasters might be a different story, but it seems by and large they just go in for longevity and popularity more than for any real skill or talent. Fine. But writers? DO NOT BELONG IN THERE.
1:42 p.m., Sam says:
No way, Carpie – You’re a HOFer in my book!
CARP SAYS:
Tell you what: You get me elected and I’ll wear an “SB” hat on my plaque. Seriously, though, Cooperstown is for guys like Bob Wolff and Vin Scully, not for schlubs like us.
It’s an abuse of our power to get writers in there. Although I’d vote you in over Jay Bell.
Agreed- Alomar maybe and that’s it.
On another note, on Pete Abe’s blog someone had posted an article from a journalist who listed his HOF votes. He had 8. None of those eight were named Rickey Henderson. Which, hey, whatever, if you feel Rickey isn’t a hall of famer, that’s your opinion (however misguided it may be). BUT, he had Matt Williams on his ballot for having ‘heart.’ Really? I agree MOST writers DO take their voting seriously but there are a handful out there that really have little clue to how it works. The sum far outweigh the means so in the end with a 75% induction approval, I don’t think the system is broken.
Some people just weren’t born with clues. Heart? Please.
Gus, Could you possibly give us that link? I can’t find it.
The threshold for getting into the hall is WAY too low. It’s now the Hall of Very Good and Consistent. I think that if there is any debate as to whether or not a player should be elected to the hall, then that player does not make the cut.
Perhaps recognize great players and records some other way in the Hall – but reserve the plaque for those players that are truly head and shoulders above the rest – the very rare legendary players (I’m talking Ruth, Cobb, Ted Williams, Gehrig, etc).
Here you go…
http://www.gvnews.com/articles/2008/12/10/sports/sports03.txt
And my bad, he didn’t vote for him for ‘heart’ it was ‘reverence.’ Laughable! I do my best to respect my elders, but this is just sad.
Thanks, Gus. Couldn’t agree more.
Carp, you like so many others, have latched on to this “most feared hitter” myth about Rice.
What I don’t understand is how the most feared hitter in baseball walked so few times. Heck he was only intentionallly walked 77 times in 16 seasons?
Doesn’t seem like there was much of a fear factor there and it has just become this myth that the Bosotn organization and writers have spread in their campaign to get Rice into the HOF.
Also, didn’t you factor in his homepark advantage? His career numbers away from Fenway are medicre at best: 277 .330 .459
Also explain how Dave Parker, who is basically a clone of Rice only gets 15% of the vote. Seriously compare their numbers.
Rice was a great player but by no means a HOF player. You and your fellow voters lowered the standard of the HOF yesterday.
Almoar would be the only person on the list who would get a vote for me. But then this gets into my beef with the whole process.
Tangent:
I respect that you Carp would go out of your way to make an informed decision about the HOF. But the fact of the matter is, the only prerequisite for getting the ability to vote is a 10 year wait period. Now granted, that’s a long time to wait, but at the same time, there are people I know who have worked in graphics for over 10 years that I wouldn’t trust to design a logo for a child’s lemonade stand much less a major client. Just because they know how to mash clipart together, touch up photographs and apply filters in photoshop, does not (in my mind) make them “professional graphic designers”. I would like to believe the same standard would apply to baseball and people who have the access to vote for Hall of Famers. I’m not saying that all baseball writers should have the same opinion on things – quite the contrary, but at least be informed about what you’re talking about. And I believe that some sort of (for lack of a better word) test would at least legitimize the voting process and give people the knowledge that these voters are well informed, intelligent, and yes, opinionated writers. I would also suggest (humbly) that there be a second tally of baseball insiders (GMs, scouts, managers – not players because these were the same idiots who voted Varitek into the All Star game) a vote as well. I know I’m muddling the process a lot, but there should be some input from people in the game, IMO.
But yes, Almoar.
Alomar – geez –
edit button PLEASE!!
In general the next couple of years for the Hall of Fame are pretty poor. There is no obvious shoe-in at all. Next year Alomar and Edgar will be the only two IMO that get any sort of debate for the hall… in 2011 it’s even more sad being headlined by Raphael Palmeiro. Ugh! Could 2011 and 2012 see zero inductees? Not likely, someone will probably get in, but that would be a good debate for you. I’m on the fence with Alomar, but anyone else I say nay to in the next two years…
I’m on the fence with Alomar AND E. MARTINEZ…. geesh, sometimes my brain is faster than my fingers.
Bob, did you see Rice play? My God, he was scary good in his prime. He batted behind Fred Lynn, who made a pretty good career out of that protection, and hit third or cleanup in one of the best lineups in the history of baseball to that point. Don’t give me all of that OBP, OPS modern-day geek garbage. The guy was a great, great hitter, who was always at or near the top of MLB in homers and RBIs and extra-base hits and slugging percentage and total bases, while usually hitting .300 and getting lots of MVP consideration. Better than Yount. Better than Puckett. Better than Molitor. Better than Murray. Better than Fisk. Way better than Alomar and Edgar and Larkin. IMO.
Sunny, I think we’re the only ones today talking about overhauling the voting process. But I wouldn’t have a problem if the ballot went to the writers and then those with 75 percent were passed on to a committee of baseball people for approval. Makes sense to me. Only the folks in Cooperstown are happy with the way it works now.
It isn’t a 10-year wait period. It’s 10 years of consecutive membership in the baseball writers association. And, yes, even after 10 years, and in some cases 20 or 40 or more, the association still produces knuckleheads who you wouldn’t trust to wash your car. By and large, though, we’re a pretty legit group if I may say so. I might also say handsome and wealthy, but I’d be lying.
Don’t give me all of that OBP, OPS modern-day geek garbage. The guy was a great, great hitter, who was always at or near the top of MLB in homers and RBIs and extra-base hits and slugging percentage and total bases, while usually hitting .300 and getting lots of MVP consideration.
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Facts? We don’t need no stinking facts.
Yes, I saw Rice play plenty. Yes he was a great hitter. No he is not a HOFer.
I find it sad that you call OBP “modern day geek garbage.” Yet you still cite .AVG as a basis for your aargument. I won’t waste my time trying to explain to you why only dinosaurs still rely on things like .AVG and RBI’s.
I don’t even want to try and understand how you think Rice was even in Murray’s neighborhood. One of the greatest switch hitters in the history of game who was consistently great for 20 seasons. And if Rice was so feared and was intentinally walked 77 times in his career, what does that make Murray who had 222? My God, pitchers must have soiled themselves whenever he came to the plate.
Oh well. No use trying to teach an old dog new tricks. I never read your stuff anyways. Only reason I come to the Lo-Hud site is for Abraham’s blog.
Well. I’m glad you read Pete Abe, because he’s the best in the biz.
If you want to keep Rice out of the Hall based on intentional walks, so be it.
And, though I’ve been called worse than dinosaur, I still think batting average is the best statistic in sports, and that every other sport tries to find something equal to BA. It’s so pure. You go to the plate X number of times and you succeed X number of times and this is your average.
So we disagree, Isn’t that what blogs are for?
So if getting a hit is “succeeding” is being walked a “failure”? Not making an out is the most important thing a hitter can do. Jim Rice wasn’t HOF-level good at that.
I also find it crazy that you think OBP is some sort of new fangled stat. Did ball players in the 40’s not know getting on base was the whole point?
I still think batting average is the best statistic in sports, and that every other sport tries to find something equal to BA. It’s so pure. You go to the plate X number of times and you succeed X number of times and this is your average.———————————————————————————
If you believe this, than how can OBP not be an even better stat?
It amazes me how some of you sportswriters absolutely refuse to acknowledge that the way we evaluate players can progress.
Do you guys still use leeches when you get sick?
not acknowlegding On Base Percentage (a very simple statistic) is doing a disservice to the BBWAA and us the fans. being able to vote for the HOF is a privelage that should not be taken for granted.
but i will agree that other sports wish they had stats that are even comparable to those in baseball. i will not limit this to batting average, however.
and again, Rices batting career average outside of fenway park is 277. (OBP of 330 and OPS of 459 for those that care…)
I didn’t say I don’t acknowledge OBP. I’m saying let’s not boil everything down to these statistics and trust our eyes to know when we’re seeing a great hitter.
Rice’s numbers, you are aware: .352 OBP, .502 slugging, 128 OPS.
Eddie Murray: .359, .476, 129.
Kirby Puckett: .360, .477, 124.
Those guys are in the Hall of Fame.
Well if we were to go with those… who is this player?
.358 OBP, .471 SLG, 127 OPS…
It’s Don Mattingly, and he’s not even getting a sniff, and he shouldn’t. He’s not Hall of Fame caliber, but in the end his numbers are eerily similar to that of three of those men.
I’m a die hard Yankees fan who saw Rice play. I was scared every time he came up to the plate. It’s too bad (for him) that his career ended so quickly, one or two more good years and his candidacy would be a moot point.
I do have a question, if Rice is in, how can Albert Belle be left out? Before retiring early due to injury, his numbers were absolutely ridiculous.
I didn’t say I don’t acknowledge OBP. I’m saying let’s not boil everything down to these statistics
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It’s better to boil it down to some ridiculous myth of “being the most feared?”
Joe Sheehan (caution Carp, he’s one of the new age geeks) had a great piece on this and within it a great line:
“Rice’s honor isn’t about him. Rice’s honor is about late baby boomer sportswriters a little bit fazed, a littel bit daunted, by the objectivist revolution in baseball validating their own youth, their own memories, their own relevance.”
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1150
Gus, great point. But why not Mattingly for consideration? He was the best player in the game for a stretch of about four years, won a slew of gold gloves, hit like an all-time great. Is it just because his career was cut short by the bad back?
Clay, another great point about Joey (call me Albert) Belle. I think this guy got no support just because he was such a cretin, such a bad human being. Is that right or wrong?
It’s funny- I just had this same Mattingly debate with the sports director here at my place of business. He’s a Yankee hater and was arguing that Mattingly should be in and thinks he will be in when it’s all said and done. Interesting take, I don’t agree with it so we’ll see. Hopefully he’s right, Mattingly was “my guy” growing up.
Thanks, Bob. That’s pretty deep, but that could be it.
Let me ask you, since you did see Rice, to which current player would you compare him? I’m not being argumentative, just curious.