I’m not going to rush to judgment on Plaxico Burress and the reports that he “accidentally” was shot or perhaps shot himself in the leg in a nightclub. I’m not goint to bring up the question about what an NFL player is doing in a club late at night, or what he’s doing with a gun, if he had one, or why these guys always seem to find places where people have guns.

I’m just going to say this: It’s about time the Giants start thinking about kicking this distraction off their defending-champion roster.

And I’m going to say this: No matter what happened, you just know it was sheer stupidity on Burress’ part that he was involved in any way.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am thankful for my new system, although I am not thankful that Sam outed it last week. Yes, I flip a coin on every game. Heads the home team, tails the visiting team. And it proves once again that nobody knows anything about who will win football games (especially against the spread). There are no experts. The most knowledgeable people in the sport can’t stay over .500, and people who know nothing can win all the time (did I just admit I know nothing?).

I once won an office pool (for points, if anybody asks, not money) by having my wife make my picks for me. She picked Purdue because she likes their chicken, and won.

So, my system went 11-5 last week and closed the gap to a single game on Sam the Outer, who was 9-7. Which also means I’m doing as well with coin flips as the Jets.

We’re a couple of days early here because of the three Turkey (and we mean holiday, not played by turkeys) games.

Try to not eat too much tomorrow.

Standings
Sam 91-80-3 —
Carp 90-81-3 1GB

WEEK 13

LIONS (+11) over Titans
Seahawks (+12 1/2) over COWBOYS
Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES
REDSKINS (+3 1/2) over Giants
JETS (-7 1/2) over Broncos
BILLS (-7) over 49ers
BUCS (-3 1/2) over Saints
PACKERS (-3) over Panthers
Dolphins (-8) over RAMS
Ravens (-7) over BENGALS
Colts (-4 1/2) over BROWNS
CHARGERS (-5) over Falcons
Steelers (+1) over PATRIOTS
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
Bears (+3) over VIKINGS
TEXANS (-3 1/2) over Jaguars

11:30 p.m., Wednesday, Sam says:

First, let me say that I’m thankful for Carp, of course, but also for all of you. Readers are the best part of this job, because you’re the ones that care – about the teams, about the players and about the words that I, and others, put in the paper each day. I say it in every e-mail correspondence I have with those who contact me, but I’ll repeat it again here: Thanks for reading.

I’m also thankful for family, friends and the guy who invented stuffing. Hope everyone here has a tremendous holiday.

Now, on to the picks …

LIONS (+11) over Titans
COWBOYS (-12 1/2) over Seahawks
EAGLES (-3) over Cardinals
Giants (-3 1/2) over Redskins
Broncos (+7 1/2) over JETS
BILLS (-7) over 49ers
BUCS (-3 1/2) over Saints
Panthers (+3) over PACKERS
Dolphins (-8) over RAMS
Ravens (-7) over BENGALS
Colts (-4 1/2) over BROWNS
Falcons (+5) over CHARGERS
PATRIOTS (-1) over Steelers
RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs
VIKINGS (-3) over Bears
Jaguars (+3 1/2) over TEXANS

LeBron James is at the Garden tonight, and no doubt will get an even louder ovation than he did last time he visited, when he droppped 50 on the Knickerbockers.

The reason for the cheers tonight will be because it is so completely obvious to everyone that the Knicks are lining up—by dumping players and salaries and contracts—to be able to sign LeBron when he becomes a free agent in 2010. Now, you’d have to be an idiot to not want King James in Knicks blue and orange, so it’s understandable that you’d cheer him on even as he beats , or tries to beat, the Knicks.

The question, I guess, is whether this is all a pipe dream. Do you think James really wants to be a Knick? Here’s the problem I see—in addition to the Knicks so obviously lusting after a player who is under contract for another two years. What if King James and the Cavaliers, who suddenly have some talent around him, moreso than when they went to the NBA finals, win a championship in 2009 or 2010?

Do you think he’d leave a championhship team to come to a Knicks team that hasn’t won in forever? And wouldn’t an NBA title help Cleveland afford to keep him? James already has all the money in the world (or at least all the money that A-Rod and James Dolan don’t have). He already has endorsement deals coming out of his ears. Does he need New York? Does he need to be a big player on the big stage?

I think if he wins in Cleveland, or if he thinks he has a chance to win in Cleveland, or a much better chance to win there than here, then he stays put. Maybe I’m being naive.

3:30 p.m., Tuesday, Sam says:

Hugely naive, actually, Carp. But it’s endearing.

LeBron is coming here. And if not here, he’s going to Chicago or LA. Basically, he’s going somewhere that’s not Cleveland.

There’s no debating that James will have to leave somewhere near $30 million on the table to bolt the Cavs, but I’ve got no doubt he’ll gladly accept the max money he can get elsewhere for a chance to play on the biggest stage. He’s that kind of star – he wants to be an icon, bigger than the game, and the place you do that isn’t Ohio.

As for the idea that winning a title in the next few years (or even getting close) might tie him to Cleveland, I actually think the opposite; if he wins, great, he’s given his hometown team a championship and now he can go out and make his mark somewhere else. The storyline is easy: Local kid makes good, then goes out to see the world. Who can blame him?

Plus, the way to become an all-time legend isn’t by being in Cleveland. It’s by turning around a team in the capital of the world. By giving the Knicks their first championship in three decades. That’s how you get immortality.

LeBron’s coming to the Garden tonight. I’m willing to bet he’s back for 41 home games in 2010.

OK, I’m officially drinking the Green Kool-Ade now. I believe in the Jets. Two weeks ago, I thought they’d have to be pretty impressive, and very competitive, in their two coming road games, at New England and at Tennessee. Well, the Jets won both.

And both of my feet are now planted on that bandwagon. I see a young Favre out there. I see a defense that has risen toward the best in the AFC, and an offensive line that makes Favre and all his weapons much better.

Not that I’m getting into all this Jets-Giants Super Bowl hype. I still think that’s terribly premature and silly, knowing how hard it is to get through the playoffs for any team—how the Giants could even get tripped up, how the Colts, the defending champs, went down last year. It could happen, but the likelihood if still rather small, and there is even a chance the Jets won’t make the playoffs.

People do turn on dimes around here, by the way. Suddenly we’re hearing—from the same mouths, in some cases—that A) the Jets are the best team in the AFC and B) that Tennessee was a paper power, fraudulent at 10-0. Well, which is it? Did the Jets just beat the best team in the AFC, or could it be that the Jets aren’t that good since they simply beat a fraud?

I think the Titans are still one of the favorites in the AFC, and it will be a steep challenge for the Jets to have to beat them again—and in all probability have to do it on the road again. And don’t look now, but the Colts are finally getting healthy.

3:30 p.m., Tuesday,  Sam says:

Sorry Carp, but I’m not all the way on board yet. Are the Jets good? You bet. They’re very good and they could very well make a run in the postseason. But I actually think the Colts are the best bet to end up in the Super Bowl (against the Giants).

I’m just not convinced Favre can keep it together the rest of the way. Maybe I’ll be wrong – certainly it wouldn’t be the first time – but Favre showed what kind of QB he can lapse into earlier this season, and it’s hard for me to imagine we won’t see another recurrence of Bad Brett.

The Giants are a way, way, way more complete team than the Jets right now. And interestingly enough, the Giants are playing in the tougher conference this season, which isn’t something you could say the past few years; injuries and some attrition have suddenly made the AFC way weaker.

Is a NY-NY Super Bowl still a possibility? Of course. But I’m way more sold on the Giants than I am on the Jets. Don’t paint me green just yet.

This new system rules! I used it last night and picked up another game on Sam with the Steelers, after picking up two games last week (it would have been three but I forgot to use the system in the Jets-Patriots game and picked the Pats using my own brain).

So, excluding that game, and including last night’s game, it is 10-6 for the week. Heck, the system even knew that the Steelers-Chargers game would end up with that ridiculous blown call and that the Chargers would cover. I want to give it another test drive before I tell you what it is.

This week it is going with the Giants and the Jets. I figure the Giants will romp, but I think the Jets will lose. But I’m sticking with what works. So after the overall 9-7 week (Sam went 7-9), here we go:

Standings (before last night’s game)
Sam 82-73-3 —
Carp 79-76-3 3 GB

WEEK 12

W-STEELERS (-11) over Bengals
Giants (-3) over CARDINALS
Jets (+5 1/2) over TITANS
Texans (+3) over BROWNS
CHIEFS (+3) over Bills
DOLPHINS (-1) over Patriots
49ers (+10) over COWBOYS
Bucs (-8) over LIONS
Eagles (+1) over RAVENS
Bears (-8) over RAMS
Vikings (+2 1/2) over JAGUARS
FALCONS (-1) over Panthers
Raiders (+9) over BRONCOS
SEAHAWKS (+3 1/2) over Redskins
CHARGERS (-2 1/2) over Colts
SAINTS (-2 1/2) over Packers

1:30 p.m., Sam says:

OK, let’s not get crazy, Carp. Sources tell me that your “system” involves the very scientific method of flipping a coin on each game. Keep that up, pal. I still like my chances.

L-Bengals (+11) over STEELERS
Giants (-3) over CARDINALS
TITANS (-5 1/2) over Jets
Texans (+3) over BROWNS
Bills (-3) over CHIEFS
Patriots (+1) over DOLPHINS
COWBOYS (-10) over 49ers
LIONS (+8) over Bucs
RAVENS (-1) over Eagles
Bears (-8) over RAMS
JAGUARS (-2 1/2) over Vikings
FALCONS (-1) over Panthers

BRONCOS (-9) over Raiders
Redskins (-3 1/2) over SEAHAWKS
CHARGERS (-2 1/2) over Colts
SAINTS (-2 1/2) over Packers

Sam, I feel as if we’ve had this discussion before, and that we disagreed. Is Mike Mussina a Hall of Famer?

I might change my mind in the five years between Mussina’s retirement announcement and when I receive the official ballot with his name on it. I didn’t think Mussina was a Hall of Famer before he won 20 games for the first time this year, and at the moment I’m leaning toward sticking with that.

The reason is simple. I think there needs to be a line drawn between being a baseball immortal and being really, really good. Mussina was really, really good for a long, long time. I don’t think he was ever the best pitcher in his league or in baseball (he never won the Cy Young). I don’t think the fact that he never won a championship should go against him, but if he’d won one or two, that would certainly add luster to his resume.

I just think we’ve let too many really, really good players into Cooperstown already. Paul Molitor always comes to mind. People are talking about Craig Biggio now. These guys were never, ever, better than players like Jim Rice and Don Mattingly, who remain out. Or even Gary Sheffield, who even with his admission of, ahem, flaxseed oil use, is more deserving.

Likewise, Mussina is in the Bert Blyleven category. Don Sutton got in with a similar resume to Mussina’s, and I don’t think he should be in, either. I think Jack Morris, still on the sidelines, was better than all three of those guys, but didn’t compile the longevity numbers.

Fortunately, I don’t have to make that decision on Mussina today.

(WHO DO YOU LIKE?, Thursday edition: STEELERS (-11) over Bengals).

11:30 a.m., Thursday, Sam says:

In fact, we have had this discussion back in the middle of the baseball season. It was Question #5. And weren’t those the days?

Anyway, we sort of disagreed then and we sort of disagree now. I think Mussina is the very definition of a borderline HOFer. He was an excellent pitcher. That is indisputable. And he did it for a very long time in an era when players’ careers are getting ever-shorter. That is certainly in his favor.

I am still a few years away from voting for the HOF, so I can’t say for sure how I’ll approach the process, but I’d like to think that I’ll be VERY discriminating. I believe the HOF is for no-doubters and Mussina isn’t necessarily in that category. That said, I do think he’s worthy (if that makes any sense at all), so I wouldn’t be outraged if he did make it. Everyone has a different standard for what it takes to make the HOF, and Mussina is right on the outside of mine; it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was right on the inside of many others’.

Former Yankees bullpen catcher Mike Borzello is one of Mussina’s closest friends and he used to call Mussina “Mr. Almost” – almost threw a perfect game, almost won a championship and – until this past season – almost won 20. Now that he seems to be retired, it’s interesting to see if Mussina is almost a HOFer or if he actually gets all the way there.
——
I’m hoping that the Steelers are a little tired coming off a short week. I’ll take the Bengals and the 11 points.

Several years ago, Brian Cashman spent the entire winter talking about how Bubba Crosby was going to be the Yankees center fielder. Bernie Williams was gone and with no obvious options on the horizon, Cashman said he was going to give Crosby a chance as an everyday player.

Then he signed Johnny Damon. (Crosby, by the way, is out of baseball now)

I mention this because so far this winter Cashman has said, several times, that Brett Gardner is the team’s likely center fielder. No one really believes this, in part because – well, it just doesn’t seem altogether likely – and in part because of what happened with Damon.

So who will be the Yanks’ next CF? It would seem like they’re looking for a stopgap solution, someone to fill the role for a few years until Austin Jackson, a hyped prospect, could be ready for the bigs. If that’s true, signing or trading for a player with a long-term deal might wouldn’t be ideal.

Someone like Mike Cameron? He was a hot name early on. Then there was the whole Beltran-for-Cano/Hughes rumor that was working its way around the city a month ago. Doesn’t seem likely though.

I think the Yanks could end up with someone like Gary Matthews. The Angels signed him then picked up Torii Hunter and so Matthews is more of an extra piece for them. Could Matthews fit with the Yanks? His numbers were rough last year (but so were Nick Swisher’s) but he’s got three years left on a contract and has shown good skill, particularly defensively, in the past.

Great addition? Probably not. But maybe the best kind of stopgap until the Yanks’ future arrives.

Who do you think will be playing center for the Yankees in 2009?

CARP SAYS:

Maybe Jorge Posada can play center field.

Seriously, and this is something we’ve discussed on and off for a while, it looks as if so much revolves about whether Posada can catch that the Yankees’ hands are tied to a large degree. That’s why I think the Nick Swisher trade indicates that the Yankees believe (fear) that Posada will not be doing a lot of catching this year. So there will be days when Posada plays first and Swisher the outfield, and days when Posada DHs and maybe Matsui plays the outfield or sits, and probably therefore days when Damon has to slide over and play some center field.

My point is, the Yankees still have all these guys for so few positions. It doesn’t seem likely they’re going to go get an everyday center fielder of any significance, and franky none of those options is a lot greater than Melky Cabrera.

As for Brett Gardner, I don’t see him hitting enough to play with any regularity, and if he is in center and Jose Molina is behind the plate (and with the subtractions of Jason Giambi’s bat and probably Bobby Abreu’s bat) the Yankees are going to have plenty of trouble scoring runs again. More trouble than last year.

Honestly, as a Yankees fan, or a fan of any team—but particularly the Yankees—do you feel just a little lousy about the way they plan to rebuild their team, by simply throwing ridiculous, stupid amounts of money at ballplayers. By just blowing the other teams out of the water with their checkbook?

Wouldn’t you rather that they had to use their brains and their resources other than money?

Isn’t it enough that you won’t be able to afford seats in the new Yankee Stadium? If you can afford them now, you won’t be able to in 2010 or 2011.

And hasn’t sports reached the point of gross pig-ish-ness? I mean, PSLs, ticket prices, late night World Series games. Not to mention that Citi Group announced it will lay off 53,000 workers, while it is spending millions upon millions for naming rights to the Mets’ new ballpark.

I’m disgusted. Are you?

The defending Super Bowl champs are sure a much more fun bunch since they’ve abandoned, at least to some degree, the notion that everybody’s against them, that nobody’s giving them a chance.

Well, almost.

But in case you missed it, there were a number of great quotes coming out of the Giants’ lockerroom yesterday. You can see them in context in Mike Dougherty’s story in The Journal News and on LoHud.com here.

The short version:

Sean O’Hara: “It’s still us against the world. There’s just maybe not as many people on that world side.”

And the favorite from Brandon Jacobs, who’s a much better guy when he’s not so angry:

“I’m not surprised by anything we do. We’re capable of doing anything. You might see us fly one day.”

Is anybody going to tell him otherwise?

I wrote a column about New Rochelle’s Ray Rice, the Baltimore rookie who had some tough sledding against the flying Giants.

The flying Giants made a pretty good defense look pretty bad yesterday, and made a pretty good running team look awful and, well, continued to make a case that they are headed to another inevitable Super Bowl. I cannot fathom a single reason to think they won’t.

See, I’m an idiot. I have come up with this new system, which last week went 8-5 and closed the gap by one game on Sam … and the NFL throws a Thursday game into the fray and I forget to use the system and pick the Patriots, and there goes that one game I worked so hard to attain. Sam had the Jets, who have absolutely killed me this season.

I have to say, though, that last night it was the Patriots who shot themselves, not just me, by not kicking the early field goal on 4th and short, by committing those two dreadful fumbles, and that dropped first-down pass on third and long. And they still took it to overtime. The Jets ought to be proud of the way they played such a “clean” game (the operative word on the NFL Network), but the Pats sure handed them every opportunity to win it.

Anyway, on to Week 11, where my new system has me worried because it is picking against the Giants (go Ray Rice!) and taking the Raiders, Bengals, Chiefs, Lions, Seahawks and Browns. Yuck. I’m not happy about that, but after the 8-5 week it deserves another chance.

Here we go:

Sam 75-64-3 —
Carp 70-69-3 5GB

WEEK 11

L-PATRIOTS (-3) over Jets
Ravens (+7) over GIANTS
FALCONS (-6 1/2) over Broncos
Raiders (+10 1/2) over DOLPHINS
COLTS (-8) over Texans
PACKERS (-3 1/2) over Bears
BENGALS (+9) over Eagles
CHIEFS (+5 1/2) over Saints
Lions (+14) over PANTHERS
BUCS (-4) over Vikings
49ERS (-6 1/2) over Rams
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Cardinals
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
Chargers (+5) over STEELERS
REDSKINS (+1 1/2) over Cowboys
Browns (+5) over BILLS

8 p.m., Friday, Sam says:

I’m not sure why you’re so worried, Carp – personally, I think your new system is working just great. I hope you’ll keep using it all the way to my victory lap at the end of the season.

Brett and the Boys got me off to a good start last night. Here’s the rest of the picks …

W-Jets (+3) over PATRIOTS
Ravens (+7) over GIANTS
FALCONS (-6 1/2) over Broncos
DOLPHINS (-10 1/2) over Raiders
COLTS (-8) over Texans
PACKERS (-3 1/2) over Bears
Eagles (-9) over BENGALS
Saints (-5 1/2) over CHIEFS
Lions (+14) over PANTHERS
BUCS (-4) over Vikings
Rams (+6 1/2) over 49ERS
Cardinals (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
STEELERS (-5) over Chargers
REDSKINS (+1 1/2) over Cowboys
BILLS (-5) over Browns