Are the Rays dead fish? Can the Phillies actually claim their second World Series title ever in Game 5 tonight?

I picked the Phils in seven, but I’m not giving them the series tonight, not automatically. It’s just too easy to say 3-1 means it’s over, especially when we’ve seen the Red Sox come back from 3-1 and 3-0 in two ALCSs and force a Game 7 when down 3-1 to these same Rays just a week or so ago.

Besides, I am a firm believer in this: That in playoff series (other than NBA series, where the home team just wins every game) whatever has happened up to any point in the series has no bearing on what happens next; that there is no such thing as momentum carrying over from game to game.

I think the biggest obstacle for Tampa Bay, obviously, is that its comeback has to begin against Cole Hamels. Tall task? No doubt.

But it’s as simple as this: Win tonight and get it back home, where the Rays are pretty darn good, and then anything can happen. It really can. These Rays aren’t throwing in any towel, I guarantee that.

PS, all along the broadcasters (and some print media members) have been talking about home-field advantage. Yes, some teams are better than others at home, but home-field is no huge advantage. Anyway, you don’t steal home-field advantage (as they claimed the Phils did by winning Game 1). Home-field advantage only comes into play in a seven-game series, when the final game is at home. The Rays would have that. First they have to get there. Then they can thank baseball and FOX for that idiotic idea that the all-star game winner gets the seventh game at home, and they can thank all those Rays who contributed to the all-star game win at Yankee Stadium … over Philly’s Brad Lidge, by the way.

9:15 a.m., Sam says:

No way it’s over! While my Rays in six pick isn’t looking great right now, I do think the Rays can come back in this series. Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria can’t hit like this forever … right? Right?