The Mets won their first game of the second-half last night in dramatic fashion, coming back against the (horrific) Reds late in the game. The Yankees start up their second half tonight against the A’s. The Mets are currently tied for first place in the NL East, the Yankees are 6 games out in the AL East.

So, will there be October baseball in New York?

I say there will. As bad as the Yankees have looked, I wrote them off in 2005 and 2006 (both years that I covered the team), and they came back to play in the postseason. So, having learned my lesson, I say they’ll grab the wild card (and then lose in the first round).

The Mets? I do think they’re closer to this team that’s won 10 in a row than the one we saw for most of April/May, and I think they’ll end up winning the NL East comfortably—say, 3-4 games. How would a Mets-Dodgers NLCS look? Joe Torre back in NY? Tasty.

What say you, Wise Carp?

Carp says:

Wise? I think you may be confusing age with wisdom.

Anyway, I have my doubts about both teams. The Mets bullpen has been walking on a wire throughout this whole 10-game winning streak, and we still don’t know about Pedro, or Ryan Church, and we can be fairly certain that Fernando Tatis and Damion Easley will come back to Earth to some degree. I agree with you, I expected them to be in contention all year, and I thought they were much better than they showed in the first half.

One thing they have going for them is that it won’t take a monster record to get into the postseason in the NL.

The Yankees, I suspect, will miss out this year. Everybody is shocked by their lack of offense, but I don’t think it’s a total fluke, especially with Matsui and Damon banged up. Robinson Cano is playing down a level, but Jason Giambi is playing over his head. Their outfield produces almost no power, and if they continue to have to play Molina behind the plate, they will have to remove a bat to do so. I think Richie Sexson will win a few games for them, a la Dave Kingman in the late 1970s, but that’s what he is. Dave Kingman. He can’t play every day with all those holes in his swing.

The Yankees hitters seem to put up huge outings against lousy pitchers, then get completely shut down by good pitching, which makes their poor stats look even better than they really are. They do NOT hit with men in scoring position (A-Rod).

And I’m still not sure their pitching will hold up, either. Mike Mussina can’t be as good in the second half, can he? Darrell Rasner is pitching his way out of the rotation. Do you really trust the bullpen to be able to get the ball to Rivera in crucial situations late in the season?

Finally, in a difficult stretch of the season is where they will miss Joe Torre, especially when the loudmouthed son of the owner starts bellowing his ultimatums.